2008 Fed Ex Cup - Alternative Final 30 Scenarios


2008 PGA Tour Season 2008 Fed Ex Cup Playoffs


1 .. Pre-2008 Tour Championship Leaders

Going into the 2008 Tour Championship. Vijay Singh had all but clinched the Fed Ex Cup title. All he had to do was
officially complete 72 holes of the Tour Championship at Atlanta's East Lake GC on September 25-28.

The only possible way Singh could lose the Fed Ex Cup was if he either withdrew from the Tour Championship, or if
he suffered a disqualification during the tournament. If one of these things had happened, then #2 Camilo Villegas
and #3 Sergio Garcia would have been the only ones in the Final Top 30 with a mathematical chance under the actual
playoff set-up to overtake Singh and claim the Fed Ex Cup, provided that one of them won the Tour Championship.

Of course, Singh played the event without incident, finishing in a 4-way tie for 22nd, and claimed the
Fed Ex Cup. Meanwhile, Villegas and Garcia actually wound up tied for for first at the end of 72 holes.
Villegas then beat Garcia in a sudden-death playoff and claimed the Tour Championship title.

The difference between #1 Singh and #30 C. Campbell is 19,839 points. Singh is 10,601 points ahead of #2 Villegas,
11,751 points ahead of #3 Garcia, 13,521 points ahead of #4 Furyk, and 13,583 points ahead of #5 Weir.

Full Top 30 Fed Ex Cup leaderboard going into the 2008 Tour Championship .....
                             Actual                                 Actual
   Rank   Player             Points       Rank   Player             Points
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------
     1    Vijay Singh        122,651       16    Hunter Mahan       105,149
     2    Camilo Villegas    112,050       17    Carl Pettersson    104,794
     3    Sergio Garcia      110,900       18    Robert Allenby     104,601
     4    Jim Furyk          109,130       19    Trevor Immelman    104,528
     5    Mike Weir          109,068       20    Stuart Appleby     104,525

     6    Anthony Kim        108,919       21    Ernie Els          104,425
     7    Justin Leonard     108,138       22    Ken Duke           104,232
     8    K.J. Choi          106,846       23    Tim Clark          103,895
     9    Phil Mickelson     106,701       24    Briny Baird        103,534
    10    Ben Curtis         106,202       25    D.J. Trahan        103,453

    11    Kevin Sutherland   106,178       26    Ryuji Imada        103,353
    12    Steve Stricker     106,156       27    Andres Romero      103,303
    13    Kenny Perry        105,865       28    Billy Mayfair      103,189
    14    Dudley Hart        105,431       29    Bubba Watson       103,003
    15    Stewart Cink       105,182       30    Chad Campbell      102,812


2 .. Pre-2008 Tour Championship
Actual and Alternative Fed Ex Cup Points

The actual points distribution used (a total of 110,000 pts) for the 2008 Tour Championship was as follows ....
    1 .. 12,500    6 .. 4,200   11 .. 3,600   16 .. 3,100   21 .. 2,600   26 .. 2,150
    2 ..  8,500    7 .. 4,050   12 .. 3,500   17 .. 3,000   22 .. 2,500   27 .. 2,100
    3 ..  6,000    8 .. 3,900   13 .. 3,400   18 .. 2,900   23 .. 2,400   28 .. 2,050
    4 ..  5,000    9 .. 3,800   14 .. 3,300   19 .. 2,800   24 .. 2,300   29 .. 2,025
    5 ..  4,500   10 .. 3,700   15 .. 3,200   20 .. 2,700   25 .. 2,225   30 .. 2,000
It is easy to see the problems created by the actual Tour Championship points distribution, pre-determined
and approved at least nine months before the start of the 2008 FedX playoffs !!, and with no special policy in
place that would allow for a customized adjustment to handle unusually large playoff leads.

So, Vijay Singh, with two playoff wins that awarded more than twice as many points as one would get in regular
events, was virtually assured of the Fed Ex Cup title even before play began at the 2008 Tour Championship.

If a special custom adjustment policy had been in place, then the Tour Championship points distribution
could have been adjusted prior to the start of play, allowing all 30 participants a more than fair chance to
win not only the tournament but also the Fed Ex Cup Title as well.

For 2008, an alternative points distribution method, which offers a total of 216,000 pts, calculated,
approved and announced on the Monday before play in the Tour Championship begins, is as follows ....
    1 .. 36,000    6 .. 8,640   11 .. 5,616   16 .. 4,896   21 .. 4,248   26 .. 3,888
    2 .. 19,800    7 .. 7,560   12 .. 5,472   17 .. 4,752   22 .. 4,176   27 .. 3,816
    3 .. 15,120    8 .. 6,480   13 .. 5,328   18 .. 4,608   23 .. 4,104   28 .. 3,744
    4 .. 11,520    9 .. 6,120   14 .. 5,184   19 .. 4,464   24 .. 4,032   29 .. 3,672
    5 .. 10,080   10 .. 5,760   15 .. 5,040   20 .. 4,320   25 .. 3,960   30 .. 3,600
With the alternative points distribution in effect, a few of the potential scenarios it creates are as follows ....

»» Players #1 thru #9 ... JUST WIN, BABY !!

»» Players #10 thru #22
    Combination of winning Tour Championship (36,000 pts)
    -AND-
    Vijay Singh finishing no better than a two-way tie for 2nd (17,560 pts)

»» Players #23 thru #30
    Combination of winning Tour Championship (36,000 pts)
    -AND-
    Vijay Singh finishing no better than a three-way tie for 2nd
    (15,480 pts), or solo 3rd (15,120 pts)


The customized alternative Tour Championship points makes the 2008 Fed Ex Cup winning scenarios
less complex and easier to understand. Using the alternative points also makes it clear that Vijay Singh
and the other leading players can't just sleepwalk through 72 holes. They have to play strong, steady,
near flawless golf to hold off the entire field of 30, who in turn would surely be inspired to play their best.

Now, on to the actual 2008 Tour Championship results, which will include the alternative points
distribution and the various potential scenarios which have been created by such points.



3 .. The 2008 Tour Championship .... Actual results, plus alternative points

Sure enough, while Vijay Singh just eased his way thru the tournament and finished tied-22nd, his closest
wanna-be-but-never-would-be pursuers (in "actual" mode) Camilo Villegas and Sergio Garcia battled
well into sudden-death for the Tour Championship title, with Villegas the winner and Garcia the
runner-up. See the next section for actual and alternative Fed Ex Final 30 outcomes.

PURSE: $ 7,000,000     1st Prize: $ 1,260,000     No-Cut Field of 30     30 of 30 finishers
Player            Finish   Scores                 Tournament    FX Points
--                --       --                     Money         Actual   Alternative
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Camilo Villegas   WINNER   72, 66, 69, 66 = 273	  $ 1,260,000    12,500   36,000

  NOTE .. Villegas won a sudden-death playoff over Garcia.

Sergio Garcia         2    70, 65, 67, 71 = 273   $   756,000     8,500   19,800

Anthony Kim          T3    64, 69, 72, 69 = 274   $   409,500     5,500   13,320
Phil Mickelson       T3    68, 68, 69, 69 = 274   $   409,500     5,500   13,320

Ben Curtis            5    71, 69, 68, 70 = 278   $   280,000     4,500   10,080

Ernie Els            T6    68, 73, 70, 69 = 280   $   238,000     4,050    7,560
Jim Furyk            T6    72, 70, 69, 69 = 280   $   238,000     4,050    7,560
Mike Weir            T6    70, 69, 71, 70 = 280   $   238,000     4,050    7,560

K.J. Choi             9    69, 70, 70, 72 = 281   $   210,000     3,800    6,120

Stuart Appleby      T10    72, 71, 70, 69 = 282   $   180,040     3,500    5,472
Dudley Hart         T10    73, 69, 71, 69 = 282   $   180,040     3,500    5,472
Trevor Immelman     T10    68, 73, 71, 70 = 282   $   180,040     3,500    5,472
Justin Leonard      T10    73, 69, 73, 67 = 282   $   180,040     3,500    5,472
Billy Mayfair       T10    72, 71, 69, 70 = 282   $   180,040     3,500    5,472

Kevin Sutherland     15    71, 71, 69, 72 = 283   $   154,000     3,200    5,040

Robert Allenby       16    75, 66, 67, 76 = 284   $   148,400     3,100    4,896

Ken Duke            T17    77, 69, 69, 71 = 286   $   138,600     2,850    4,536
Ryuji Imada         T17    75, 72, 71, 68 = 286   $   138,600     2,850    4,536
Hunter Mahan        T17    74, 75, 68, 69 = 286   $   138,600     2,850    4,536
D.J. Trahan         T17    71, 72, 71, 72 = 286   $   138,600     2,850    4,536

Carl Pettersson      21    76, 72, 71, 68 = 287   $   131,600     2,600    4,248

Chad Campbell       T22    72, 73, 75, 69 = 289   $   127,400     2,450    4,140
Vijay Singh         T22    73, 74, 72, 70 = 289   $   127,400     2,450    4,140

Stewart Cink        T24    75, 73, 73, 69 = 290   $   120,400     2,225    3,960
Kenny Perry         T24    76, 75, 67, 72 = 290   $   120,400     2,225    3,960
Steve Stricker      T24    74, 74, 70, 72 = 290   $   120,400     2,225    3,960

Briny Baird         T27    74, 71, 70, 76 = 291   $   115,500     2,075    3,780
Andres Romero       T27    73, 68, 78, 72 = 291   $   115,500     2,075    3,780

Tim Clark            29    78, 74, 71, 69 = 292   $   113,400     2,025    3,672

Bubba Watson         30    71, 74, 74, 76 = 295   $   112,000     2,000    3,600


4 .. Final 2008 Fed Ex Cup Top 30 Standings -- Actual and Alternative

In "actual" mode, Vijay Singh edged out Camilo Villegas for the Fed Ex Cup title -- by only 601 points!! The Tour
Championship runner-up Sergio Garcia finished 3rd, 5,701 pts behind Singh. If Garcia had won the tournament,
then he would have been the "actual" 2nd place Fed Ex finisher, 1,701 pts behind Singh.

In "alternative" mode, we have a much different final Fed Ex Cup outcome -- Villegas 1st, Garcia 2nd and Singh 3rd.
Of secondary importance is Phil Mickelson's going from #7 "actual" to #5 "alternative". It should also be noted that
a Garcia playoff win would have reversed his and Villegas' positions in both "actual" and "alternative" modes.

Anthony Kim finished #4 in both modes. Both he and Mickelson tied for 3rd in the Tour Championship, each one
stroke short of joining Villegas and Garcia in the playoff! Imagine that -- potentially four players could have been
battling, at least in "alternative" mode, for both the tournament and the Fed Ex Cup Title. However, a scenario like
that was not to be realized, mainly because an alternative points distribution was never used, or even considered!!!
--                      Actual      --                  Alternative    Fed Ex Cup
Rank  Player            Points      Rank  Player             Points    Bonus Money
-------------------------------     --------------------------------   ------------
 1    Vijay Singh       125,101      1    Camilo Villegas    148,050   $ 10,000,000

 2    Camilo Villegas   124,550      2    Sergio Garcia      130,700   $ 3,000,000

 3    Sergio Garcia     119,400      3    Vijay Singh        126,791   $ 2,000,000

 4    Anthony Kim       114,419      4    Anthony Kim        122,239   $ 1,500,000

 5    Jim Furyk         113,180      5    Phil Mickelson     120,021   $ 1,000,000

 6    Mike Weir         113,118      6    Jim Furyk          116,690   $ 800,000
 7    Phil Mickelson    112,201      7    Mike Weir          116,628   $ 700,000
 8    Justin Leonard    111,638      8    Ben Curtis         116,282   $ 600,000
 9    Ben Curtis        110,702      9    Justin Leonard     113,610   $ 550,000
10    K.J. Choi         110,646     10    K.J. Choi          112,955   $ 500,000

11    Kevin Sutherland  109,378     11    Ernie Els          111,985   $ 300,000
12    Dudley Hart       108,931     12    Kevin Sutherland   111,218   $ 290,000
13    Steve Stricker    108,381     13    Dudley Hart        110,903   $ 280,000
14    Kenny Perry       108,090     14    Trevor Immelman    110,000   $ 270,000
15    Ernie Els         108,050     15    Stuart Appleby     109,997   $ 250,000
   
16    Trevor Immelman   108,028     16    Steve Stricker     110,116   $ 245,000
17    Stuart Appleby    108,025     17    Kenny Perry        109,825   $ 240,000
18    Hunter Mahan      107,999     18    Hunter Mahan       109,685   $ 235,000
19    Robert Allenby    107,701     19    Robert Allenby     109,497   $ 230,000
20    Stewart Cink      107,407     20    Stewart Cink       109,142   $ 225,000

21    Carl Pettersson   107,394     21    Carl Pettersson    109,042   $ 220,000
22    Ken Duke          107,082     22    Ken Duke           108,768   $ 215,000
23    Billy Mayfair     106,689     23    Billy Mayfair      108,661   $ 210,000
24    D.J. Trahan       106,303     24    D.J. Trahan        107,989   $ 205,000
25    Ryuji Imada       106,203     25    Ryuji Imada        107,889   $ 200,000

26    Tim Clark         105,945     26    Tim Clark          107,567   $ 195,000
27    Briny Baird       105,609     27    Briny Baird        107,314   $ 190,000
28    Andres Romero     105,378     28    Andres Romero      107,083   $ 185,000
29    Chad Campbell     105,262     29    Chad Campbell      106,952   $ 180,000
30    Bubba Watson      105,003     30    Bubba Watson       106,603   $ 175,000


5. "Very Alternative" 2008 Tour Championship Sudden-Death Playoff Outcomes

As mentioned in the previous section, Phil Mickelson and Anthony Kim each came up one stroke
short of joining Camilo Villegas and Sergio Garcia in the playoff for the Tour Championship
title. What follows is a supposing of outcomes that could have occurred if -BOTH- Mickelson
and Kim had managed to shave off one more stroke and join the playoff.

NOTE
All supposings presented below assume nothing else changes beyond the results of just the
sudden-death playoff. Also, only places #1 thru #7 on either the actual or alternative lists are affected.
_______________________________________________________________
Scenario A -- Phil Mickelson wins Tour Championship

  Actual Mode                     Alternative Mode

  Rank  Player        FX Pts      Rank  Player        FX Pts    FX Bonus $$$
  ---------------------------     ---------------------------   ------------
    1.  Singh         125,101       1.  Mickelson **  142,921   $ 10,000,000

    2.  Mickelson **  119,201       2.  Villegas      127,530   $ 3,000,000

    3.  Villegas      118,550       3.  Singh         126,791   $ 2,000,000

    4.  Garcia        117,400       4.  Garcia        126,380   $ 1,500,000

    5.  Kim           116,419       5.  Kim           124,399   $ 1,000,000

    6.  Furyk         113,180       6.  Furyk         116,690   $ 800,000

    7.  Weir          113,118       7.  Weir          116,628   $ 700,000

___________________________________________________________
Scenario B -- Anthony Kim wins Tour Championship

  Actual Mode                     Alternative Mode

  Rank  Player        FX Pts      Rank  Player        FX Pts    FX Bonus $$$
  ---------------------------     ---------------------------   ------------
    1.  Singh         125,101       1.  Kim **        144,919   $ 10,000,000

    2.  Kim **        121,419       2.  Villegas      127,530   $ 3,000,000

    3.  Villegas      118,550       3.  Singh         126,791   $ 2,000,000

    4.  Garcia        117,400       4.  Garcia        126,380   $ 1,500,000

    5.  Mickelson     113,201       5.  Mickelson     122,181   $ 1,000,000

    6.  Furyk         113,180       6.  Furyk         116,690   $ 800,000

    7.  Weir          113,118       7.  Weir          116,628   $ 700,000




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2008 Fed Ex Cup - Alternative Final 30 Scenarios


2008 PGA Tour Season 2008 Fed Ex Cup Playoffs


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