2016 Fed Ex Cup - Alternative Final 30 Scenarios


2015-16 PGA Tour Season 2016 Fed Ex Cup Playoffs


1 .. Pre-2016 Tour Championship Leaders

2016 U.S. Open Champion and playoff event winner Dustin Johnson enjoys a 986-point lead over
#2 Patrick Reed (one win, two top 10's in playoffs), while #3 Adam Scott is 1,710 pts back;
#4 Jason Day, the 2016 Players Champion, is 1,780 pts back; #5 Paul Casey is 1,937 pts back.

Difference between #1 Johnson and #30 Charl Schwartzel is 3,582 points.

Full Top 30 Fed Ex Cup leaderboard going into the 2016 Tour Championship .....
                             FX Points                                 FX Points
    Rank  Player             Normal   Reset     Rank  Player           Normal  Reset
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     1   Dustin Johnson      5,189    2,000     16   Matt Kuchar       1,875   304
     2   Patrick Reed        4,203    1,800     17   Hideki Matsuyama  1,856   288
     3   Adam Scott          3,479    1,600     18   Si Woo Kim        1,794   272
     4   Jason Day           3,409    1,440     19   Kevin Kisner      1,787   256
     5   Paul Casey          3,252    1,280     20   Gary Woodland     1,755   248

     6   Rory McIlroy        3,223    1,120     21   Roberto Castro    1,742   240
     7   Jordan Spieth       2,771      960     22   Kevin Na          1,727   232
     8   Russell Knox        2,465      800     23   William McGirt    1,666   224
     9   Emiliano Grillo     2,371      640     24   Bubba Watson      1,658   216
    10   Jimmy Walker        2,340      480     25   Sean O'Hair       1,652   208

    11   Brandt Snedeker     2,117      384     26   Daniel Burger     1,650   200
    12   Justin Thomas       1,946      368     27   Jason Dufner      1,635   192
    13   Phil Mickelson      1,932      352     28   J.B. Holmes       1,618   184
    14   Ryan Moore          1,883      336     29   Jhonattan Vegas   1,611   176
    15   Kevin Chappell      1,881      320     30   Charl Schwartzel  1,607   168


2 .. Pre-2016 Tour Championship:   Actual and Alternative Fed Ex Cup Points

The actual points distribution used (a total of 10,270 pts) for the 2016 Tour Championship was as follows ....
     1.. 2,000     6.. 400    11.. 280    16.. 212    21.. 172    26.. 136
     2.. 1,200     7.. 360    12.. 260    17.. 204    22.. 164    27.. 130
     3..   760     8.. 340    13.. 240    18.. 196    23.. 156    28.. 124
     4..   540     9.. 320    14.. 228    19.. 188    24.. 148    29.. 118
     5..   440    10.. 300    15.. 220    20.. 180    25.. 142    30.. 112
For 2016, an alternative points distribution method, which offers a total of 36,000 pts, calculated,
approved and announced on the Monday before play in the Tour Championship begins, is as follows ....
     1.. 6,000     6.. 1,440    11.. 936    16.. 816    21.. 708    26.. 648
     2.. 3,300     7.. 1,260    12.. 912    17.. 792    22.. 696    27.. 636
     3.. 2,520     8.. 1,080    13.. 888    18.. 768    23.. 684    28.. 624
     4.. 1,920     9.. 1,020    14.. 864    19.. 744    24.. 672    29.. 612
     5.. 1,680    10..   960    15.. 840    20.. 720    25.. 660    30.. 600
With the alternative points distribution in effect, a few of the potential scenarios it creates are as follows ....

»» Players in Positions 1 thru 7 .... JUST WIN, BABY !!!

»» Players in Positions 8 thru 22 ....
    Combination of winning Tour Championship (6,000 pts)
    -AND-
    Dustin Johnson finishing no better than a solo 3rd place (2,520 pts).

»» Players in Positions 23 thru 30 ....
    Combination of winning Tour Championship (6,000 pts)
    -AND-
    Dustin Johnson finishing no better than a two-way tie for 3rd place (2,220 pts).


The customized alternative Tour Championship points makes the 2016 Fed Ex Cup winning scenarios less complex and
easier to understand. Also, a sense of real urgency to play as well as one can rather than just coasting along is created,
especially for the leading players who, in the right scenario, can easily be surpassed by any player in the field.

Now, on to the actual 2016 Tour Championship results, which will include the alternative points distribution and the
various potential scenarios which have been created by such points. One can compare and contrast both Tour
Championship reset and non-reset scores, as well as the final "actual" and "alternative" Fed Ex Cup standings.



3 .. The 2016 Tour Championship: Actual results, plus alternative points

A sudden-death playoff win over Ryan Moore and Kevin Chappell would enable Rory McIlroy to snatch up all the
tournament and Fed Ex Cup booty. That's actual fact. However, the "alternative" story is quite different, as will
be shown and explained in the following two sections.

   Jason Day withdrew (injury) following the first round. He received $ 136,000 in unofficial tournament money.

PURSE: $ 8,500,000     1st Prize: $ 1,530,000     No-Cut Field of 30     29 of 30 finishers
    Player            Finish   Scores                  Tournament   FX Points
    --                --       --                      Money        Actual / Alternative
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Rory McIlroy      WINNER   68, 70, 66, 64 = 268    $ 1,530,000    2,000    6,000

         NOTE: McIlroy won a sudden-death playoff over Chappell and Moore.

         Scenarios found elsewhere on this page show both actual and alternative
         final FedEx standings had either Moore or Chappell won the playoff.

    Kevin Chappell       T2    66, 68, 68, 66 = 268    $ 752,250      1,000    2,910
    Ryan Moore           T2    70, 68, 66, 64 = 268    $ 752,250      1,000    2,910

    Paul Casey            4    68, 70, 69, 64 = 271    $ 408,000      600      1,920

    Hideki Matsuyama      5    66, 71, 68, 69 = 274    $ 340,000      440      1,680

    Dustin Johnson       T6    66, 67, 69, 73 = 275    $ 297,500      380      1,350
    Justin Thomas        T6    68, 71, 69, 67 = 275    $ 297,500      380      1,350

    Jason Dufner         T8    73, 67, 66, 70 = 276    $ 263,500      330      1,050
    Adam Scott           T8    69, 71, 71, 65 = 276    $ 263,500      330      1,050

    Emiliano Grillo     T10    73, 70, 66, 69 = 278    $ 218,620      262      912
    Si Woo Kim          T10    67, 72, 74, 65 = 278    $ 218,620      262      912
    Charl Schwartzel    T10    74, 67, 66, 71 = 278    $ 218,620      262      912
    Bubba Watson        T10    72, 73, 66, 67 = 278    $ 218,620      262      912
    Gary Woodland       T10    72, 70, 69, 67 = 278    $ 218,620      262      912

    Daniel Berger       T15    74, 69, 68, 68 = 279    $ 183,600      222      828
    Matt Kuchar         T15    69, 73, 68, 69 = 279    $ 183,600      222      828

    Sean O'Hair         T17    74, 68, 73, 65 = 280    $ 166,600      208      747
    Brandt Snedeker     T17    72, 69, 72, 67 = 280    $ 166,600      208      747
    Jordan Spieth       T17    68, 72, 72, 68 = 280    $ 166,600      208      747
    William McGirt      T17    77, 69, 66, 68 = 280    $ 166,600      208      747
    Roberto Castro      T17    73, 70, 67, 70 = 280    $ 166,600      208      747

    Phil Mickelson       22    74, 72, 69, 66 = 281    $ 156,400      196      696

    Russell Knox         23    73, 66, 71, 72 = 282    $ 153,000      192      684

    Patrick Reed        T24    73, 70, 70, 70 = 283    $ 147,900      186      666
    Jhonattan Vegas     T24    70, 73, 71, 69 = 283    $ 147,900      186      666

    Kevin Kisner         26    67, 70, 76, 71 = 284    $ 142,800      180      648

    J.B. Holmes          27    73, 71, 70, 72 = 286    $ 141,100      176      636

    Jimmy Walker         28    74, 74, 71, 68 = 287    $ 139,400      172      624

    Kevin Na             29    77, 74, 72, 70 = 293    $ 137,700      168      612

    Jason Day           W/D    67, 00, 00, 00 = 67     $   0,000      ---      ---



4 .. Final 2016 Fed Ex Cup Top 30 Standings -- Actual and Alternative

While Rory McIlroy was claiming the big prizes, others were claiming their share of the smaller ones.
Within the Top 10 Final Leaders, three moved up the rankings in alternative mode -- Kevin Chappell,
from #8 actual to #6 alternative; Ryan Moore, from #7 actual to #5 alternative; and Paul Casey,
from #5 actual to #3 alternative.

As mentioned in the tournament results section above, Moore and Chappell were involved in the sudden-
death playoff for the Tour Championship, eventually won by Rory McIlroy. See the next section below
for a supposing of what might have occured with Moore or Chappell tournament playoff wins.
    --                      Actual     --                  Alternative   Fed Ex Cup
    Rank  Player            Points     Rank  Player             Points   Bonus Money
    ------------------------------     -------------------------------   ------------
     1    Rory McIlroy      3,120       1    Rory McIlroy        9,223   $ 10,000,000

     2    Dustin Johnson    2,380       2    Dustin Johnson      6,539   $ 3,000,000

     3    Patrick Reed      1,986       3    Paul Casey          5,172   $ 2,000,000

     4    Adam Scott        1,930       4    Patrick Reed        4,869   $ 1,500,000

     5    Paul Casey        1,880       5    Ryan Moore          4,793   $ 1,000,000

     6    Jason Day         1,440       6    Kevin Chappell      4,791   $ 800,000
     7    Ryan Moore        1,336       7    Adam Scott          4,529   $ 700,000
     8    Kevin Chappell    1,320       8    Hideki Matsuyama    3,536   $ 600,000
     9    Jordan Spieth     1,168       9    Jordan Spieth       3,517   $ 550,000
    10    Russell Knox        992      10    Jason Day           3,409   $ 500,000

    11    Emiliano Grillo     902      11    Justin Thomas       3,296   $ 300,000
    12    Justin Thomas       748      12    Emiliano Grillo     3,283   $ 290,000
    13    Hideki Matsuyama    728      13    Russell Knox        3,149   $ 280,000
    14    Jimmy Walker        652      14    Jimmy Walker        2,964   $ 270,000
    15    Brandt Snedeker     592      15    Brandt Snedeker     2,864   $ 250,000

    16    Phil Mickelson      548      16    Si Woo Kim          2,706   $ 245,000
    17    Si Woo Kim          534      17    Matt Kuchar         2,703   $ 240,000
    18    Matt Kuchar         526      18    Jason Dufner        2,685   $ 235,000
    19    Jason Dufner        522      19    Gary Woodland       2,667   $ 230,000
    20    Gary Woodland       510      20    Phil Mickelson      2,628   $ 225,000

    21    Bubba Watson        478      21    Bubba Watson        2,570   $ 220,000
    22    Roberto Castro      448      22    Charl Schwartzel    2,519   $ 215,000
    23    Kevin Kisner        436      23    Robert Castro       2,488   $ 210,000
    24    William McGirt      432      24    Daniel Burger       2,478   $ 205,000
    25    Charl Schwartzel    430      25    Kevin Kisner        2,435   $ 200,000

    26    Daniel Berger       422      26    William McGirt      2,412   $ 195,000
    27    Sean O'Hair         416      27    Sean O'Hair         2,399   $ 190,000
    28    Kevin Na            400      28    Kevin Na            2,339   $ 185,000
    29    Jhonattan Vegas     362      29    Jhonattan Vegas     2,277   $ 180,000
    30    J.B. Holmes         360      30    J.B. Holmes         2,254   $ 175,000


5. Alternative 2016 Tour Championship Sudden-Death Playoff Outcomes

A supposing that either Ryan Moore or Kevin Chappell won the 2016 Tour Championship sudden-death playoff instead
of Rory McIlroy. These scenarios assume that nothing else changes beyond just the sudden-death playoff results.

Scenario (A) -- A Ryan Moore win.           Scenario (B) -- A Kevin Chappell win.
    Scenario (A) or (B)                  Scenario (A) or (B)
    Actual Points Method                 Alternative Points Method

    Rank  Player            Points       Rank  Player              Points   Fed Ex Cup
    --                                   --                                 Money $$$
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1   Dustin Johnson      2,380        1     Ryan Moore (A)      7,883    10,000,000
                                               Kevin Chappell (B)  7,881

    2   Ryan Moore (A)      2,336        2     Dustin Johnson      6,539     3,000,000
        Kevin Chappell (B)  2,320

    3   Rory McIlroy        2,120        3     Rory McIlroy        6,133     2,000,000

    4   Patrick Reed        1,986        4     Paul Casey          5,172     1,500,000

    5   Adam Scott          1,930        5     Patrick Reed        4,869     1,000,000

    6   Paul Casey          1,880        6     Ryan Moore (B)      4,793       800,000
                                               Kevin Chappell (A)  4,791

    7   Jason Day           1,440        7     Adam Scott          4,529       700,000

    8   Ryan Moore (B)      1,336        8  Hideki Matsuyama       3,536       600,000
        Kevin Chappell (A)  1,320

    All results below 8th place in either actual or alternative points mode unchanged.




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2016 Fed Ex Cup - Alternative Final 30 Scenarios
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2015-16 PGA Tour Season 2016 Fed Ex Cup Playoffs


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